Slab Investment: 2021 Marcelo Mayer RayWave: SGC 9.

Yes, you read the title correctly. I bought an SGC 9. Not an SGC 10, or for some a bearable 9.5, but a flat 9.

I was inclined to purchase this Mayer RayWave for a few key reasons:

  1. I was in the market for a Marcelo Mayer 1st Bowman that would remain among the lower POP cards in total grading. RayWave parallels came at only 5 per Topps exclusive LITE boxes. With a checklist of 150 players, each Mayer would hit once on average, every 30 boxes. At the time of this article, 2021 Bowman Draft LITE boxes are selling for $150 on average, with a 16-box case available from a major vendor for $2,349. Based on these figures, you would typically see one of these cards every 2 cases.
  2. Total POP forecasting. As of today, PSA has graded 94 of Mayer’s RayWave Refractor, with 75 x 10’s and 19 x 9’s. This gives the card a 76% gem rate so far.
  3. Cards with high gem rates will often sell for much higher than the lower-POP 9’s available for sale at the main time.
  4. Monitoring the PSA 10 asking prices as some of the 75 units hit the eBay market. Current available slabs for sale -$250, -$350, -$395, $699. Average PSA 10 ask: $423
  5. What about those 19 PSA 9’s coming in: Two are available, for $125 and $140. Half price off the cheapest 10 for the exact same short print card, for one point shaved off. Average PSA 9 ask: $132.50
  6. Where does SGC stand? Owners of these slabs are holding down the fort and establishing value for a short print 1st Bowman of a top prospect. Seven total SGC slabs are currently available for sale. There are three SGC 10’s priced at: -$275, -$375, -$500. The four SGC 9.5’s listed are priced at -$120, -$254, -$529.
  7. The RAWs! The ones you can hope on, spend $30 to grade. You can wait a little over a month with SGC, or a little over four months with PSA. Factor in $30 grade cost to a raw into your final slab cost. The 5 raws listed are listed aggressively at -$100, -$100, -$120, -$160, and -$170. Keep in mind people post a card at a price they foresee (or hope) it will climb to in the future. Average RAW listed: $130.
  8. What should an SGC 9 be valued at? There has not been one sold yet, and we can only formulate valuations based off the value of the raw card, the rarity of the card, and the grading cost already invested. I found an auction for precisely a SGC 9 and tried to snag it at a discount price if I could.

This is the Marcelo Mayer 1st Bowman RayWave that I purchased for $55.94 after shipping at tax.

I love this card. It was also a product-exclusive debut that is color natural and refracts in a spectacular way when you hold one in-hand. I paid $55.94 to hold it in my hand.

What do you think: Did I get a steal on a short print already protected, or would you have passed on an SGC 9, even if at this price, for your preference to pay more for a PSA 9, and many times more over for a PSA 10?

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